U.S. feed grain balance sheet steady for 2012/2013
USDA ERS, 12/13/2012
The 2012/2013 feed grain balance sheet was unchanged this month as forecast U.S. feed grain supplies are steady and disappearance is unchanged. Production, projected at 284.7 million metric tons, is 12 percent below 2011/2012. Projected supplies are 317.1 million tons, also down 12 percent from a year ago.
Forecast U.S. feed grain use is unchanged this month at 297.6 million metric tons, down 10 percent from 2011/2012. Forecast ending stocks of 19.5 million tons are 30 percent below the previous season. Tight ending stocks continue to support average prices received by farmers at record-high levels.
On a September-August marketing year basis for 2012/13, U.S. feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat is projected to total 116.4 million tons, up slightly this month due to an assumed increase in wheat feed and residual use during summer 2013. Corn is expected to account for 91 percent of feed and residual use, compared with 88 percent last year.
The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2012/13 is 90.8 million units, slightly lower than last month and below last season’s 92.6 million. Feed and residual per GCAU is estimated at 1.28 tons, compared with 1.41 tons in 2011/12. In the major index components, GCAUs are increased this month for cattle on feed, layers, and broilers.
Forecast Corn Price Projected Lower
The forecast U.S. corn price received by farmers for 2012/13 is reduced by $0.15 per bushel on the low end of the range and $0.25 on the high end to $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel, putting the midpoint of the range down $0.20 to $7.40. The early corn harvest has boosted the share of marketings in the first months of the marketing year, when prices tend to be seasonally low relative to later months. Moreover, the average farm prices reported by NASS have been lower than prevailing market prices, reflecting earlier forward pricing when corn prices were lower. Early marketings may include a disproportionate share of corn with quality problems that have price discounts. The season average price received by farmers in 2011/12 was $6.22 per bushel.